Marianna Kudlyak

I am an economist with the  research interests in macroeconomics, labor economics and consumer finance. I work as Research Advisor (Economist and Bank Officer) at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.  Previously, I worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.  Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.

I am also Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Monetary Economics and Fluctuations Programme, Research Fellow at the  Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), and Senior Research Fellow at the International Center for Economic Analysis (ICEA).  

I earned a PhD in Economics from the University of Rochester under advisorship of Professor Mark Bils. I was born in Lviv, Ukraine,  studied at the Lviv Lyceum of Physics and Mathematics, obtained the BA and Specialist degrees in Economics from the State University Lviv Polytechnic, MA in Economics from the Economic Education and Research Consortium at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy and MA in Economics from the University of Rochester.

My CV; Contact: mkudlyak @ gmail.com, Twitter

IDEAS/RePec Female Economists Ranking Last 10 Years Publications: Top 100       

IDEAS/RePec All Economists Ranking Last 10 Years Publications: Top 900       

My websites:


Professional Memberships:

American Economic Association (AEA), Econometric Society (ES),  American Finance Association (AFA), European Finance Association (EFA), European Economic Association (EEA), American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA), European Association of Labor Economists (EALE)


Grant Reviewer:

National Science Foundation, USA

Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

 Published Articles in Academic and Federal Reserve Journals

Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 38 (2), Spring 2024. Forthcoming.

Mark Bils, Marianna Kudlyak  and Paulo Lins.  Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 41(S1): S13-S59.

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and Saif M. Mehkari. Review of Economic Studies, 2023, Vol. 90, Issue 5: 2674-2714. 

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak, Labour Economics, 2022, Vol. 79, 102244.

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, Vol. 131: 15-25.

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak.  NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2022, Vol. 36:1-55.

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, Journal of the European Economic Association,  2020, Vol. 18: 2922–2971.

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019, Vol. 11(3): 327-57.

Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M. Sanchez, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, Vol. 77: 48-69.

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond,  2017.

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, Vol. 48(7): 1495-1513

Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M Sanchez. The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2016 (lead article).

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Perspectives, FRB Chicago, Vol. 40(1), 2016.

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, Vol. 101(3), 2015.

Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Guannan Luo, Marisa Reed, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q 2015.

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.

Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, Vol. 68: 53-67.

David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 47: 39-53.  

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2013.

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 3Q 2012.

Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24:9, 3139-3186.

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, and Jonathan Tompkins, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 4Q, 2011.

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q, 2010.

War in Ukraine

Giacomo Anastasia, Tito Boeri, Marianna Kudlyak, and Oleksandr Zholud,  VoxEU, January 26 2023

Giacomo Anastasia, Tito Boeri, Marianna Kudlyak, and Oleksandr Zholud;  September 2022; in "Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies", Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ilona Sologoub, Beatrice Weder di Mauro (eds), CEPR Press, London. https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/rebuilding-ukraine-principles-and-policies  Hoover Institution WP No. 22130  IZA WP  CEPR WP

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, Aysegül Sahin. CEPR Policy Insight May 2022. See also:  IZA Policy Paper No. 185 Hoover Institution WP No. 22122

Working Papers

Robert E. Hall, and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 23-33. First version:  Oct 2023. Latest version: March 2024. 

Matteo Benneton, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon. FRB SF Working Paper No. 2022-13. Latest version: February 2024.

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak. Latest version: November 2021. 

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak, 2019 (Fenruary),  FRB San Francisco WP No. 19-05. 

Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 22-16. Latest version: April 2023.

Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci, and Didem Tuzemen. First version: May 2018. Latest version: January 2023

Antoine Bertheau, Morten Bennedsen,  Marianna Kudlyak  and Birthe Larsen.  Latest version: April 2023.

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, January 2018, FRB San Francisco WP No. 17-20. Under revision for American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev. June 2013. Revision requested by Journal of Labor Economics. Presentations:  U Toronto (2013), SED, Seoul, Korea (2013),  North American Summer Meeting, LA (2013), U Warwick (2013), SOLE, Boston (2013), ASSA, San Diego (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2012), UC Berkeley (2012)

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 20-05, February 2020.  

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak. Latest version: November 2021. Keynote Address  by Robert E. Hall at the 2021 IZA Workshop "The Role of Search and Matching in Macroeconomics" 

Ester Faia, Marianna Kudlyak, Ekaterina Shabalina, First draft: March 2021.  CEPR Discussion paper No. 16008

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 19-07, First draft: February 2019. Latest version: July 2021

Samuel Engle, Jussi Keppo, Marianna Kudlyak, Elena Quercioli, Lones Smith, Andrea Wilson. Latest version: April 2021

Marianna Kudlyak and Erin Wolcott, May 2020.

Andra Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, 2016, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-31.

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, 2016, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-24.

Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe Schwartzman, 2012, FRB Richmond WP No. 12-04 Slides

Marianna Kudlyak, September 2010, Richmond FED WP No. 10-13. For Supplementary Appendix click here. This is an unpublished 2009 paper that describes the user cost of labor. The key point of this paper is published in "The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor", JME 2014.  

Non-Employment Index  NEI website and data Latest data: updated monthly.

The Non-Employment Index is an alternative measure of resources in the labor market developed by Hornstein, Kudlyak and Lange (2014) and updated monthly (St Louis FRED database). 

Short Articles in Federal Reserve Journals

30. How Far Is Labor Force Participation from Its Trend? 

Andreas Hornstein,  Marianna Kudlyak,  Brigid Meisenbacher, and David A. Ramachandran. Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, Aug 2023, 2023-20.

29. House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises

Denis Gorea, Augustus Kmetz,  Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Marianna Kudlyak, and Mitchell Ochse.  Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, Mar 2023, 2023-09.

28. Passing Along Housing Wealth from Parents to Children

Matteo Benetton, Marianna Kudlyak, Louis Liu, John Mondragon, and Mitchell Ochse.  Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, Nov 2022, 2022-32.

27. The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak,  Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, April 2022, 22-12.

26. Comparing Pandemic Unemployment to Past U.S. Recoveries

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, November 2021, 2021-33.

25. Temporary Layoffs and Unemployment in the Pandemic

Erin Wolcott, Mitchell G. Ochse, Marianna Kudlyak, and Noah A. Kouchekinia, Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, November 2020, 2020-34.

24. Why Is Unemployment Currently So Low?

Marianna Kudlyak and Mitchell G. Ochse, Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, March 2020, 2020-06.

23. Who from Out of the Labor Force Is Most Likely to Find a Job?

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, January 2020, 2020-02.

22. Involuntary Part-Time Work a Decade after the Recession

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, November 2019, 2019-30.

21. Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, John Mullin. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, September 2019, 19-09.

20. The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Annemarie Schweinert. Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, November 2018, 2018-25.

19. Estimating Aggregate Fiscal Multipliers from Local Data

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, Saif M. Mehkari, David A. Price. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, May 2018, 2018-05.

18. How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices

Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak, and Patrick Shultz. Economic Letter, FRB  San Francisco, May 2018, 2018-12.  Reprinted in: GLOBAL COMMODITIES APPLIED RESEARCH DIGEST (J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities at the University of Colorado Denver Business School), Vol. 3, No. 2: Winter 2018

17. How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus

Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and Saif M. Mehkari. Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, April 2018, 2018-11.

16. How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, August 2017, 2017-25.

15. Measuring Labor Utilization: the Non-Employment Index

Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, March 2017, 2017-08.

14. Why Are Women Leaving the Labor Force?

Maria Canon, Helen Fessenden, and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, November 2015.

13. Aging and the Economy: the Japanese Experience

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed. The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, October 2015.

12. How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, Karl Rhodes. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, February 2015.

11. Youth Labor Force Participation Continues to Fall, but It Might Be for a Good Reason

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Yang Liu. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2015.

10. Is Involuntary Part-Time Employment Different after the Great Recession?

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, July 2014.

9. Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2014.  Working paper: A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market

8. Not Everyone Who Joins the Ranks of the Employed Was “Unemployed”

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2014.

7. How Risky Are Young Borrowers?

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, December 2013.

6.  A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate 

Maria Canon, Peter Debbaut, and Marianna Kudlyak, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, October 2013.

5.  Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search

Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, April 2013.

4. The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and the Recovery

Marianna Kudlyak, and David Price, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2012.

3. The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: the Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)

Marianna Kudlyak, David Price, and Juan M. Sanchez, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, October 2010.

2. Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions: a Focus on the Age Composition of the Population

Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond , April 2010.

1. Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures

Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, Sept 2009.

Vox EU and CEPR Policy Writings

4. How House Prices Respond to Monetary Policy Surprises

Denis Gorea, Augustus Kmetz, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, and Marianna Kudlyak, Vox EU, 4 November 2022

3. The effect of the war on human capital in Ukraine and the path for rebuilding

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, Aysegül Sahin. CEPR Policy Insight No 117. Also:  IZA Policy Paper No. 185

2. What do recoveries from past US recessions teach us about the recovery from the pandemic recession?

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak, Vox EU, 24 June 2020

1. Inequality and household debt: New evidence

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, Vox EU, 29 January 2014

Published Discussions

24. "The Emergence of a Uniform Business Cycle in the United States: Evidence from New Claims-Based Unemployment Data” by Andrew Fieldhouse, Sean Howard, Christoffer Koch, and David Munro, at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference, March 28-29, 2024, Washington DC. Discussion slides. Link to the event. Forthcoming.

Unpublished Discussions

23. "Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics” by Mark Gertler, Christopher Huckfeldt and Antonella Trigari, at the 5th Banco de España Research Conference, Madrid, Spain, December 2022

22. “The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run,” by Erik Hurst, Patrick Kehoe, Elena Pastorino, Thomas Winberry at the NBER EFG Meeting, Chicago, October 2022. Slides

21. “Labor Market Fluidity and Human Capital Accumulation,” by Niklas Engbom at the Employment Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, Atlanta, October 2022.

20. “Financial Constraints and the Racial Housing Gap,” by Pierre Mabille, Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman at the European Finance Association Annual Meeting, Barcelona, August 2022. Slides

19. "The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack” by R. Jason Faberman, Andreas Mueller, Aysegul Sahin, and Giorgio Topa

18. "Trends in Work and Leisure: It's a Family Affair," by Titan Alon, Sena Coscun, and Matthias Doepke

17. "The Impact of Repossession Risk on Mortgage Default," by Terry O'Malley

16. "The U.S. Labor Market 2007-2017," by Aysegul Sahin

15. "Gender-Targeted Job Ads in the Recruitment Process: Evidence from China," by Peter Kuhn and Kailing Shen Slides

at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research 2018 Workshop on Job Search and Vacancies, FRB Chicago April 20-21, 2018

14. "Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires," by Mark Gertler, Chris Huckfeldt and Antonella Trigari

at the CADRE Conference, FRB Kansas City, May 9-10, 2017.

13. "Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models," by Susanto Basu and Chris House, Slides

at the Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, FRB SF, March 31, 2017.

12. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," by Hie Joo Ann and James D Hamilton,

at the California Macroeconomics Conference, Claremont-McKenna College, October 28, 2016.

11. "Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative," by Stefania Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jaromir Nosal,

at the “Commercial-Housing-Urban-Macro (CHUM) Conference”, FRB Atlanta and University of Wisconsin-Madison, Atlanta, October 14-15, 2016. 

10. "Endogenous Wage Rigidity and Labor Force Participation," by Cynthia L. Doniger and David López -Salido,

at the “New Developments in Macroeconomics of Labor Markets,” Kiel-FRB NY, NYC, NY, Sept 8-9, 2016.

9. "Grown-Up Business Cycles" by Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin,

New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets, CREI, Barcelona, September 18-19, 2015.

8. "Aging and Deflation: Japanese Experience" by Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara,

Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal, June 1-2, 2015.

7. "Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis" by Gonzalo Llosa, Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo and Richard Rogerson,

System Macro Meeting, LA Branch of FRB SF, April 13-14, 2015.

6. “How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring" by Mark Bils, Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim,

Recent Developments in the U.S. Labor Market: Analysis and Policy Responses, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, October 2013.

5. “Rebuilding Household Credit Histories: Slow Jobless Recovery from Mortgage Crises” by Guannan Luo,

2013 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.

4. “The Trend Is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries by Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu,

Employment Consequences of the Great Recession, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2012.

3. “Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market,” by Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante,

Employment and Education Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2011.

2. “What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate?” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura,

New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, NYC, April 2010.

1. “Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics,” by Pedro Silos and Enchuan Shao,

Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto, May 2009.

Teaching: Micro Data for Macro Models Course webpage

A PhD-level mini-course that covers two modules: (1) Wage Rigidity, (2) Matching Efficiency.

Seminar Presentations

Conference Presentations

2024

2023

2022

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

Referee Service

Conference organization

Conference participation w/o presentation